It appears that the only "constitutional" way by which the WHC can be removed from Kazan (but even then it isn't clear if the chair can be "taken" if not voluntrialy relinquished) is that either a. A 2/3rds majority of the WHC vote for it in a special meeting called by one of them or b. The WHC Bureau agrees to it. It isn't clear to me whether this would require a simple majority of the Bureau or even a unanimous vote -the latter would seem unlikely to occur with Russia charing the committee!
What are the chances of either of these happening given the current composition of the 2 groups and the current political stance being taken by those countries??Today there has been a full meeting of the UN Assembly which decided to expel the Russian Federation from the Human Rights Council. To do that it needed a 2/3rds majority. It achieved that with the 193 members voting as folows Yes (i.e "Expel") - 93 No - 24 (Alg, Belarus, Boliv, Burun, CAR, Chi, Congo, Cub, DPRK, Erit, Eth, Gab, Iran, Kaz, Kyr, Lao, Mali, Nicar, Russ, Syr, Taj, Uzb, Viet, Zimb) Abstain - 58 (G Biss, Ang, Bah, Bangla, Barbad, Belize, Bhu. Bot, Bra, Brunei, C Ver, Cambod, Camer, Egy, El Sal, Eswat, Gamb, Gha, Guy, India. Indon. Iraq, Jor, Ken, Kuw, Lesot, Madag. Malay, Mald. Mex. Mongol, Moz, Namib, Nep, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Pak, Qat, St Kitt, St Vinc, Saudi, Seneg, Sing, S Afr, S Sud, Sri L, Sud, Surin, Thai, Tog, Trinidad, Tun. Uga, UAE, Tanzan, Vanuat, Yemen Didn't vote - 18 (Afg, Arm, Azer, Ben, B Fas, Dji, Equ G, Guin, Leb, Maurit, Moroc, Rwa, S Tome, Sol Isl, Somal, Turkmen, Venez, Zamb)
I have taken the voting decision on this matter of those 21 States on the WHC and assumed a similar stance on the matter of the WHC location. With this result - Yes - 6 (Arg, Bel, Bul, Gr, It, Jap) No - 2 (Eth, Rus) Abstain - 11 (Egy, India, Mald, Mex, Nicar, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, St Vinc, Saudi. S Afr) Didn't Vote - 2 (Zam, Rwa)
If we look at the 7 members of the Bureau the voting figures are Yes - 2 (Italy, Argentina) No - 1 (Russia) Abstain - 4 ( India, Saudi, S Africa & Thailand) Didn't vote - 0
So - with "abstentions" and "not presents" not counting in the 2/3rds calculations (as per the "Operational Guidelines) - if every country on the WHC stuck to its current position as per the today's General Assembly vote, a 2/3rds majority to move the WHC could be achieved 6 to 2!!! One could indeed imagine that a number of countries on the WHC would simply be "absent" to avoid having to commit themselves. There is also the aspect of "Secret ballot" which, as we have seen when it comes to voting on inscriptions and delistings enables countries to achieve a desired end without any public commitment. One might think that a number of the "abstentions" and "didn't shows" might realise that it would generally be better for "World Heritage" in the long run if the meeting could be moved without them having to be seen to play a part in doing so!!! If the meeting does go ahead in Kazan then we could have the converse situation - with none of the "Yes" voting countries turning up - thereby leaving the decisions to be made by a "rump" WHC. Not a "good result" for the "World Heritage Convention" etc one would have thought, placing it firmly into the "political arena" and with any decisions made at the meeting always having a "negative aura" about them.. |